The president of the National Electoral Institute (INE), Guadalupe Taddei, announced “quick count” results for the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate late Sunday.

For each party, the INE calculated a range for the number of seats they could win in each house of Congress. The ranges are based on the percentage of votes each party received.

Morena and its allies, the Labor Party (PT) and the Ecological Green Party of Mexico (PVEM), will easily win more than 300 seats in the 500-seat Chamber of Deputies, according to the quick count. The wins will give them a supermajority in the lower house of Congress.

If the three parties win the upper end of their predicted range of Senate seats, they will also achieve a two-thirds majority in the upper house. Final results for the congressional elections are due later this week.

Morena and its allies currently have a simple majority in both houses of Congress.

A supermajority in both houses would allow the coalition led by Morena to approve constitutional reform proposals without the support of opposition parties. That would give immense power to president-elect Claudia Sheinbaum, who won the presidential election in a landslide.

She has expressed support for a package of constitutional reform proposals President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) submitted to Congress earlier this year.

More on those proposals — and what a Morena supermajority would mean for the current president and his successor — later.

The Chamber of Deputies

The INE quick count results show that Morena, the PT and the PVEM will win between 346 and 380 seats in the Chamber of Deputies. Such a result would give the alliance an unexpected supermajority.

Lawmakers are elected to the lower house both directly and according to a proportional representation system.

The breakdown of the predicted 346-380 seat range is as follows:

• Morena is expected to win between 41.2% and 42.8% of the vote, giving the party a total of 233-251 seats in the Chamber of Deputies.
• PT is expected to win between 5.3% and 6.1% of the vote, giving the party a total of 46-52 seats.
• PVEM is expected to win between 8.1% and 9.1% of the vote, giving the party a total of 67-77 seats.

The three-party opposition alliance made up of the National Action Party (PAN), the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) and the Democratic Revolution Party (PRD) will win between 94 and 129 seats in the Chamber of Deputies, according to the quick count.

The breakdown of that range is as follows:

• PAN could win between 17.3% and 18.7% of the vote, giving the party a total of 64-80 seats in the Chamber of Deputies.
• PRI could win between 11.1% and 11.9% of the vote, giving the party a total of 30-41 seats.
• PRD could win between 2.4% and 3.1% of the vote, giving the party a total of 0-8 seats.

Citizens Movement (MC) is expected to win between 11.1% and 12% of the vote, giving the party a total of 23-32 seats.

Independent candidates are expected to win between 0% and 0.9% of the vote. Such candidates could fail to win any seats in the lower house, or they could get a maximum of two, according to the INE quick count.

The Senate

The quick count results show that Morena, the PT and the PVEM will win between 76 and 88 seats in the Senate. To reach a two-thirds majority, they will need to win a minimum of 86 seats. As is the case with the lower house, Senate seats are allocated directly and according to a proportional representation system.

The breakdown of the predicted 76-88 seat range is as follows:

• Morena could win between 41.9% and 44% of the vote, giving the party a total of 57-60 seats in the Senate.
• PT could win between 5.3% and 6.5% of the vote, giving the party a total of 9-13 seats.
• PVEM could win between 8.6% and 9.8% of the vote, giving the party a total of 10-15 seats.

The PAN-PRI-PRD alliance is likely to win between 34 and 43 seats in the Senate.

The breakdown of that range is as follows:

• PAN could win between 15.8% and 17.9% of the vote, giving the party a total of 19-22 seats in the Senate.
• PRI could win between 10.7% and 12.3% of the vote, giving the party a total of 15-18 seats.
• PRD could win between 2 and 2.7% of the vote, giving the party a total of 0-3 seats.

MC could win between 10.9% and 12% of the vote, giving the party a total of 4-8 Senate seats.

What would a Morena supermajority in Congress mean for the current and future president?

If Morena and its allies end up securing a two-thirds majority in both the Chamber of Deputies and the Mexican Senate, López Obrador will have a one-month window of opportunity to push constitutional changes through Congress. That is because the lawmakers elected on Sunday will assume their positions on Sept. 1 and the president will leave office on Oct. 1.

AMLO, as noted earlier, submitted a package of constitutional reform proposals to Congress in February. Among his proposals are ones to:

• Guarantee that annual minimum salary increases outpace inflation.
• Overhaul the pension system so that retired workers receive pensions equivalent to 100% of their final salaries.
• Allow citizens to directly elect Supreme Court justices and other judges.
• Eliminate numerous autonomous government agencies.
• Reduce the number of federal lawmakers and the amount of money spent on elections and funding political parties.
• Incorporate the National Guard into the military.
• Ban fracking and genetically modified corn — the latter of which is a source of conflict with the United States.

Opposition parties vehemently oppose many of López Obrador’s proposals, especially ones they regard as attacks on Mexico’s democratic system and institutions.

There is also significant opposition to his plan to reincorporate the National Guard into the military. AMLO put the security force under the control of the Defense Ministry in 2022, but the Supreme Court ruled last year that that move was unconstitutional.

Even if Morena and its allies win a two-thirds majority in both the lower and upper houses of Mexico’s Congress, it is unlikely that López Obrador would be able to get all 20 of his constitutional reform proposals approved in the space of a single month.

That’s where Sheinbaum comes in.

She backs the president’s proposals and campaigned on her commitment to build on AMLO’s so-called “fourth transformation.” If Morena’s coalition has a supermajority in both houses of Congress, there will be ample time to pass the proposals.

Some analysts believe López Obrador sent the constitutional proposals to Congress in order to set the agenda for his successor. However, AMLO asserted on Monday that he didn’t want to “impose anything” on his successor.

“We have to come to an agreement to look at these [reform] initiatives with Claudia and other things,” he said.

A Morena supermajority in both houses would give enormous power to Sheinbaum, who will become Mexico’s first ever female president on Oct. 1.

Given her comprehensive victory over opposition bloc candidate Xóchitl Gálvez, she could rightfully argue that she has a strong mandate to make the constitutional changes proposed by López Obrador, as well as other reforms she puts forward herself.

Mexico News Daily 

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Sheinbaum, 61, is the first woman to win the Mexican presidency, and was previously the first woman to be mayor of Mexico City.

Who is Sheinbaum? How did this granddaughter of immigrants, a scientist and academic, arrive at this momentous moment in Mexican history? And what can we expect from her as president?

Growing up in a political family

Claudia was born into a secular Jewish family in Mexico City in 1962, the second of three children. Carlos Sheinbaum Yoselevitz, a chemical engineer, and Annie Pardo Cemo, a molecular biologist, were both second-generation Mexicans whose parents had fled Nazi persecution in eastern Europe.

On her father’s side, Claudia’s grandparents had emigrated to Mexico from Lithuania in the and on her mother’s side, from Bulgaria. In a 2018 NPR profile, Claudia says she celebrated Jewish holidays at her grandparents’ but “her home life was secular.”

The Sheinbaum Pardo family may not have been religious, but they were definitely political. Both of Claudia’s parents participated in the student movements of the 1960s and her father was a member of the Mexican Communist Party.

Silvia Torre, a friend of Annie Pardo, said on the Política Deja Vu podcast that the children grew up in “an atmosphere of political criticism” and that the Sheinbaum family sometimes took their youngsters to visit political prisoners at the notorious Lecumberri prison on the weekends.

Claudia was only six years old when Mexican armed forces massacred students in Tlatelolco in October 1968, but the tragedy made an indelible impression on her psyche — and that of the nation. At the third presidential debate, Claudia said “we are the children and grandchildren of 1968,” which was a crucible for the left in modern Mexico, the beginning of state repression and the “dirty war” that left murders, torture and disappearances in its wake. 

Claudia studied ballet for 13 years, into her second year of studies at the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM), but ended up choosing physics for her degree, which her brother also studied. She was an active participant in political and social causes, forming part of the larger student movement of the time, which saw its biggest moment in 1986 with the formation of the Consejo Estudiantil Universitario (CEU).

The CEU reacted strongly in response to a reform package presented by UNAM’s dean, Jorge Carpizo, that would have raised tuition and implemented more restrictions on admissions. “Our argument was that education is not a commodity, it’s a right,” said Claudia in an interview for a 2023 documentary made by her son, Rodrigo Imaz. 

“She was someone who brought order to the endless debates, especially when it was time to make important decisions, like whether to go on strike,” said sociologist and friend of Claudia, Arturo Chávez, in a profile published in the newspaper El País. “She impressed the rest of us with her ability to be systematic and say, ‘This is the way to go.’”

Pursuing an academic career and motherhood

The CEU strike was successful, leading to the defeat of the “Plan Carpizo.” This movement became the nucleus of a new political party, the Democratic Revolution Party (PRD), whose candidate, Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas, lost to Carlos Salinas in the fractious 1988 presidential election. 

Claudia married Carlos Imaz, a fellow student and activist, in 1987 and gave birth to her daughter Mariana the following year. She stayed involved in the PRD but was mostly working on her academic career at this time while raising Mariana and Rodrigo, her husband’s young son from a previous marriage.

She completed her masters in energy engineering at UNAM and went with her family to UC Berkeley for her doctorate. When she returned to Mexico four years later, she joined the faculty of UNAM’s Institute of Engineering.

Claudia Sheinbaum’s first foray into government

In 2000, when Andrés Manuel López Obrador became the mayor of Mexico City on the PRD ticket, he started looking for people with technical expertise — and political loyalty — to join his government. He asked Claudia to be Environment Minister and to work on pollution problems in the city.

Claudia would be given another mission as part of AMLO’s team: coordinate construction of the second level (“el segundo piso”) of the massive periférico or ring road that hugs Mexico City. The project, completed in 2005, was one of the most significant roadworks in Mexico City in decades, designed to alleviate congestion that was causing a concentration of emissions.

It wasn’t without controversy, however, with critics alleging a lack of transparency throughout the project and excessive costs. The term “el segundo piso” would become a slogan during Claudia’s 2024 presidential campaign, alluding to her promise to build the “second story” of AMLO’s “cuarta transformación,” or fourth transformation of Mexico.

It was during this time that Claudia experienced her first media scandal: A video surfaced in 2004 of her husband, who served in the upper echelons of the PRD, receiving cash from an Argentinian businessman. This was part of a series of videos showing similar circumstances involving people close to López Obrador, alleged to be a conspiracy by AMLO’s political rivals. Imaz accepted responsibility and said the money was for PRD campaigns. He was convicted of electoral crimes but later exonerated for lack of evidence. Imaz resigned and didn’t return to an active political life. He and Sheinbaum separated in 2016.

Sheinbaum continued by AMLO’s side when he ran for president for the first time in 2006. She became his campaign spokesperson after his controversial and very narrow loss to PAN candidate Felipe Calderón, and was instrumental in the investigation of the electoral fraud that AMLO and his team claimed had resulted in his defeat.

In 2007, Claudia contributed to the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which won a Nobel Peace Prize that same year. In the aftermath of López Obrador’s second loss representing the PRD in the 2012 presidential election, Claudia was instrumental in the foundation of the new political party AMLO decided to form. Claudia participated in the brigades and assemblies that went door to door raising awareness about their new party, named the National Regeneration Movement (Morena). 

From Tlalpan to jefa de gobierno

In 2015, Claudia represented Morena in the race for mayor of the borough of Tlalpan in Mexico CIty and won. Her time in office was marked by the 2017 Puebla earthquake, and particularly the collapse of the private Enrique Rébsamen school which killed 19 children and seven adults. Her government received criticism for allowing the school to continue to operate despite apparent infringement of zoning regulations.

In 2018, Claudia decided to run for mayor of Mexico City on the Morena ticket and won with 47% of the vote, achieving her first historical milestone as the first woman elected to govern the megalopolis. “Don’t think because you see this skinny scientist up here that we won’t be strong enough to take on the subject of crime fighting,” Claudia was quoted as saying in a speech shortly after her win.

While Claudia’s term included major public transportation projects, a massive solar panel installation, digitalization of city bureaucracy, a new public school scholarship program and reductions in crime, two dark events marked her tenure: the COVID-19 pandemic, and the collapse of the elevated Line 12 of the Metro.

While Mexico City suffered a large number of deaths from COVID-19, particularly during the second wave in 2021, Claudia’s management was overall considered prudent and effective and often contrasted with federal public health policies. The city’s vaccination campaign got off to a difficult start in late 2020, suffering from a scattered layout and shortages of vaccines, so Claudia pivoted. Instead of installing many small vaccination sites spread out over the city, she directed the establishment of six mega vaccination centers, which proved to be far more effective. In fact, the federal government subsequently applied the same strategy nationwide.

On May 3, 2021, an elevated section of Line 12 of the Metro collapsed, killing 26 people and injuring around 100. Claudia’s government initiated an investigation (eventually 10 people were arrested and charged, though they have not been tried) and brought in a Norwegian firm to determine the causes of the accident. The firm faulted both flaws in the line’s construction (beginning in 2008) and poor maintenance (particularly after the 2017 earthquake), spreading responsibility for the tragedy across several mayoral terms and mayors. Claudia rejected the report as “poorly executed” and “biased.” In January, interim mayor Martí Batres reopened the repaired Line 12.

In discussing her time in office as mayor and her relationship with AMLO, Claudia reflected in a recent interview, “I hope that the people of Mexico feel represented by me, that’s the objective. … President López Obrador is a very respectful man. He never spoke to me by telephone when I was mayor to tell me [what to do], to give me instructions. Never,” she said.

Running for president

Claudia resigned from her position as mayor in June 2023 to compete for the presidential candidacy of Morena. Her opponents were all men, some who had come up in the CEU movement of 1986 (Morena party president Mario Delgado, Senator Ricardo Monreal), and others who had significant experience in government (Marcelo Ebrard, former foreign affairs minister and mayor of Mexico City). Claudia won the party’s nomination in September, with an average of 39.4% support across five polls, and managed to avoid internal ruptures within Morena despite Ebrard’s initial rejection of her victory.

“As an adversary, she is a generous woman. I never felt aggression or hostility from her,” said Ricardo Monreal. “…And in the end, no one left [the party], no one deserted, no one went over to the opposition.”

While on the campaign trail, Claudia was often described as disciplined, never going “off-script” from her role as the leader of AMLO’s movement. Polls consistently put her ahead of her closest rival, Xóchitl Gálvez of the PAN-PRI-PRD coalition, but based on election results, even the polls underestimated her popular support with voters.

Last year was also a busy one in Claudia’s personal life. She became a grandmother in May 2023 when her son Rodrigo’s child, Pablo, was born. And she tied the knot with Jesús Tarriba Unger, a fellow physicist and risk analyst at the Bank of Mexico who she knew from college years. They reconnected in 2016, and were married in a small civil ceremony in November in Mexico City.

What to expect of Claudia as president

Claudia is often described as serious, direct and highly demanding of her team. 

“She feels like she has to get her hands dirty … it was very inspiring to see her do the same [tasks] as everyone else,” said her collaborator Pepe Merino in El País, referring to her responding personally to calls to Mexico City’s COVID-19 hotline during the pandemic. “She has a commitment and ethical and moral clarity, leaving you with no doubts or ambivalence.”

“She has a certain maternal aspect, in a sense that she is caring, but it’s clear that she is the one who makes decisions … She navigates these two things gracefully, like a dancer,” says academic Renata Turrent, a member of her campaign team.

Journalist and biographer Jorge Zepeda Patterson says Claudia means “fewer microphones and more Excel” for the 4T movement. “She is a mix of scientific thinking with a personality of doing things well, of meeting goals and meeting the level of responsibility that is demanded, and that is her drive for getting up every day, not like López Obrador’s, which is how he will be seen by history.”

When asked in a recent interview by Fernanda Caso (who described her as “friendly, but reserved”) how she would like to be remembered if she became president, Claudia said: “I want to be remembered as a good president, not just the first woman to be president…to leave the country even better than we found it … and to make even more progress against poverty and [Mexico’s] tremendous inequalities.”

To read more about Claudia’s platform and policy proposals, you can check out the following Mexico News Daily stories:

Claudia Sheinbaum talks security, water and more in El Financiero interview

Claudia Sheinbaum pledges to ‘accelerate’ transition to renewable energy if elected

What would Claudia Sheinbaum do as president?

Sheinbaum: Nearshoring will drive growth in next presidential term

Written by chief news editor Kate Bohné (kate.bohne@mexiconewsdaily.com). You can read more of her work on her Substack, The Mexpatriate.

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The party founded by President Andrés Manuel López Obrador also won the Mexico City mayoral race, with Clara Brugada prevailing over PAN-PRI-PRD candidate Santiago Taboada.

Candidates backed by Morena and its allies won the gubernatorial contests in Chiapas, Morelos, Puebla, Tabasco, Veracruz and Yucatán.

In Guanajuato, the candidate for the PAN-PRI-PRD alliance won, while a Citizens Movement (MC) party candidate looked set to retain the governorship of Jalisco for that party.

When the new governors and Mexico City mayor take office, Morena and its allies, the Labor Party (PT) and the Ecological Green Party of Mexico (PVEM), will govern 24 of Mexico’s 32 federal entities.

Registered as a political party just 10 years ago, Morena, with Sunday’s results, further entrenches itself as the dominant political force in Mexico.

The party — whose name is an acronym of Movimiento Regeneración Nacional (National Regeneration Movement), but also means brown-skinned woman — also won strong majorities in both houses of federal Congress, according to preliminary results, as well as numerous mayoral contests in municipal elections held across the country.

Early results show big win for Morena in Chiapas 

Eduardo Ramírez Aguilar, the Morena-PT-PVEM candidate in Chiapas, won a resounding victory in the southern state, which is currently governed by Morena.

Preliminary results updated at midday Monday showed he he attracted 79.1% of the vote.

Olga Luz Espinosa, candidate for the National Action Party (PAN), the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) and the Democratic Revolution Party (PRD), finished in a distant second place with just under 12% of the vote.

Ramírez, a former federal senator, said on the social platform X that he was “very grateful” to citizens who “bet on the the continuity of the transformation,” a reference to the so-called “fourth transformation” initiated by López Obrador and the Morena party.

“There are more of us who want to transform our state, and this was reflected at the ballot box,” he wrote.

PAN-PRI-PRD alliance prevails in Guanajuato

Libia García Muñoz Ledo won the governorship of Guanajuato for the PAN, PRI and the PRD. She will become the state’s first ever female governor.

The 40-year-old candidate won around 51% of the vote, according to preliminary results, while the Morena-PT-PVEM aspirant, Alma Alcaraz Hernández, had the support of about 41%.

García’s victory ensures the continuation of National Action Party rule in Guanajuato, which has been a PAN stronghold for decades.

“We won!” the candidate wrote on X.

“For the first time a woman will be at the front of the governor of Guanajuato,” García said.

“… Thank you for trusting in the best project for our people.”

MC likely to retain Jalisco

Among Mexico’s eight gubernatorial elections, Jalisco saw the closest contest on Sunday. Preliminary results showed MC candidate Pablo Lemus with almost 41% of the vote, while Morena-PT-PVEM hopeful Claudia Delgadillo had 38.5% support.

More than 40% of votes had still not been counted at midday.

Jalisco is currently governed by MC governor Enrique Alfaro Ramírez.

Lemus, a former mayor of Guadalajara, has claimed victory, but as of early Monday afternoon, Delgadillo had not conceded defeat. She said on X that she wouldn’t accept the announcement of a winner until all the votes have been counted.

Morena maintains power in Morelos

Margarita González Saravia, candidate for Morena and its allies, won convincingly in Morelos, according to preliminary results. She will become the state’s first female governor.

The former head of Mexico’s National Lottery attracted about 48% of the vote, well ahead of PAN-PRI-PRD candidate Lucía Meza Guzmán on just over 30%.

Former soccer star Cuauhtémoc Blanco governed Morelos until April, when he stepped down to stand as a candidate for the federal Chamber of Deputies.

Morena is in office in the state and with González’s victory will rule for another six years.

“The people of Morelos triumphed,” the Morena candidate wrote on X above “quick count” results that showed she was the clear winner.

Early results show Morena holding on to Puebla 

Morena-PT-PVEM candidate Alejandro Armenta Mier was a clear victor in Puebla’s gubernatorial election with around 59% of the vote, according to preliminary results.

PAN-PRI-PRD candidate Eduardo Rivera Pérez was well behind with around 33% support.

Armenta will succeed current Morena governor Sergio Salómon Cespedes.

“The only thing that moves us is love for Puebla,” Armenta wrote on X.

“Thank you because with the participation of the poblanos [residents of Puebla], we will continue making history with Dr. Claudia Sheinbaum,” the winning candidate added.

Morena secures titanic triumph in Tabasco election

Javier May Rodríguez, a former federal welfare minister and ex-head of the National Tourism Promotion Fund, scored a crushing victory for Morena and its allies in Tabasco, the home state of President López Obrador.

May attracted over 80% of the vote, leaving his two rivals with single-digit support.

He will replace current Morena governor Carlos Merino Campos later this year.

“This historic triumph is for all the people of Tabasco, the same people who welcomed us with happiness and open arms on every walk, at every event and in every meeting,” May wrote on X.

“Thank you for believing in a better Tabasco for everyone!”

Veracruz vaults Morena candidate into the state’s top job

Former federal energy minister Rocío Nahle won the governorship of Veracruz for the alliance headed up by Morena. She will become the state’s first female governor.

Nahle attracted more than 58% of the vote, according to preliminary results, well ahead of the PAN-PRI-PRD candidate José Francisco Yunes on 32%.

She will head up the second Morena government in Veracruz when she succeeds current Governor Cuitláhuac García later this year.

“In Veracruz we will continue making history,” Nahle wrote on X.

“Democracy and the continuation of the transformation triumphed. Thank you very much!”

Morena wins Yucatán gubernatorial election for the first time

The only upset among the eight gubernatorial races was the triumph of Morena candidate Joaquín Díaz Mena in Yucatán.

Díaz, who was injured in a car accident last Wednesday, attracted around 51% of the vote, according to preliminary results. Morena will thus take office for the first time in Yucatán, which has been governed by both PAN and PRI governments this century.

PAN-PRI candidate Renán Barrera, a former Mérida mayor, attracted support of around 42.5%.

Díaz, who served as the federal government’s “super-delegate” in Yucatán for almost five years before becoming Morena’s gubernatorial candidate, thanked Barrera on X for conceding defeat.

“I thank him very much for his good wishes for the good of our state,” the Morena candidate wrote.

Mexico News Daily 

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On Monday morning, President Biden issued a statement from The White House complimenting Sheinbaum on her victory:

“I congratulate Claudia Sheinbaum on her historic election as the first woman President of Mexico. I look forward to working closely with President-elect Sheinbaum in the spirit of partnership and friendship that reflects the enduring bonds between our two countries. I express our commitment to advancing the values and interests of both our nations to the benefit of our peoples,” Biden said.

Biden also congratulated the Mexican public for carrying out “a nationwide successful democratic electoral process.”

Global leaders send best wishes to Mexico’s next president

Earlier Monday, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau issued a statement on social media saluting Sheinbaum’s win. Trudeau praised the United States-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) free trade agreement as “the envy of the world, and the result of a strong, mutually beneficial relationship,” while proclaiming his desire to strengthen bilateral relations “to create more prosperity for Canadians and Mexicans alike.”

Among the first messages received by the unofficial president-elect (the National Electoral Institute will make it official by June 8) was a social media post from Spain’s prime minister, Pedro Sánchez. The post was published at 1:24 a.m. while Sheinbaum was celebrating her historical achievement with a rally in the Zócalo.

Enhorabuena, @Claudiashein, por tu elección.

Por primera vez en su historia, México tendrá a una mujer al frente de la Presidencia.

Seguiremos trabajando para fortalecer las relaciones entre España y México.

— Pedro Sánchez (@sanchezcastejon) June 3, 2024

Sánchez applauded Sheinbaum for becoming Mexico’s first female president and promised to keep working to solidify bilateral relations. Sánchez later posted that he had spoken on the phone with the president-elect.

Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, also posted a congratulatory message to Sheinbaum on X, emphasizing the “deep historical, economic and cultural ties” between Mexico and the European Union and saying that she looks forward to strengthening relations.

In the wake of a recent diplomatic incident, British Foreign Secretary David Cameron sent his regards as well, posting on X that “the UK and Mexico have been friends for 200 years, working together closely on opportunities and shared challenges.”

Leaders of the Latin American left also joined the chorus. Colombia’s president Gustavo Petro, Bolivia’s Luis Arce, Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro, Xiomara Castro of Honduras, Gabriel Boric of Chile, Bernardo Arévalo of Guatemala, Costa Rica’s Rodrigo Chaves Robles and Cuba’s Miguel Díaz-Canel all sent congratulatory messages to Sheinbaum as did Nicaragua’s Daniel Ortega, Uruguay’s Luis Lacalle and Panama’s Laurentino Cortizo.

Sheinbaum wasn’t the only victor on Sunday, though she was the most prominent. On June 2, Mexico’s electoral authorities oversaw more than 20,000 races at the local, state and federal levels. At the federal level Sheinbaum’s party, Morena and allies appear to have won a supermajority in the lower house of Congress and are likely to win a simple majority (less than two-thirds) in the Senate.

With reports from El Economista, El País and Infobae

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The election that pitted former Mexico City mayor Claudia Sheinbaum against former senator Xóchitl Gálvez marked the first time Mexican nationals could cast an in-person ballot on foreign soil for an election in Mexico. As in past elections, they could also vote by mail or electronically.

Así la fila en París, 9am #EleccionesMéxico2024 #EleccionesMx2024 #votoextranjero pic.twitter.com/hDKi0vNMCl

— Gabriela Cambero (@gabycambero) June 2, 2024

Arturo Castillo, president of the Temporary Voting Commission of Mexicans Living Abroad, shared that 39,590 ballots were received by mail, 135,331 votes were cast online, and 5,755 were cast in person at 23 consulates in the United States, Canada and Europe.

According to Mexico’s National Electoral Institute (INE), there were 258,461 Mexicans abroad who were registered to vote in Sunday’s election, the most in history. That number temporarily shrank when some 40,000 people were removed from the voting rolls in April, although 36,570 were subsequently reinstated.

This year’s 180,676 total votes from outside Mexico easily topped the 2018 presidential election’s 98,854 votes from abroad, including 37,000 that were cast online.

Voting hubs experienced significant congestion, with Madrid and Paris extending voting hours until 2 a.m. to accommodate the high turnout.

Election Update: Mexicans in New York line up to vote at the Consulate there.

It’s expected that more than 5,000 people will vote there today. pic.twitter.com/5pckyBD5dl

— Outbound Mexico (@OutboundMexico) June 2, 2024

In Madrid, where seven polling stations were set up, voters arrived as early as 4 a.m. and some waited up to 15 hours to cast their ballots.

In the United States, long lines were a common sight at consulates in cities such as Washington, D.C., San Francisco, Los Angeles and New York. 

Technical issues with the new electronic voting system further slowed the process, especially for older voters unfamiliar with the technology. Another factor slowing things down was that those who had a valid Mexican voting ID card could vote even if they had not yet registered. 

Ricardo Sánchez, an INE liaison, noted that by midday, only 150 out of 1,000 people in line had managed to vote in Washington, D.C.

In Fresno, long, slow-moving lines and hot weather had people on edge. By Sunday afternoon, there were more than 1,000 people in line, according to the Consulate of Mexico in Fresno, but many were reportedly turned away when the consulate closed its doors at 5 p.m.

“I was here in the morning, and I came back, and the line never ended,” frustrated would-be voter Nayamin Martinez told Fresno TV station KFSN. “About 10 minutes before 5 p.m., they came out and said roughly 600 people have voted but [that] we’re closing.”

Similar scenes played out in San Francisco, Phoenix and Chicago, where the influx of voters caused street closures.

“In some cases,” the INE noted in a statement to the Associated Press, “the large influx of people wishing to vote at the consular headquarters has exceeded expectations.”

“This is sad,” voter Abel Vences told Chicago TV station WLS. The INE “wasn’t ready and was not respectful.”

Despite the challenges, voters in several cities sang traditional Mexican songs, such as “Cielito Lindo,” while waiting in line. In Los Angeles, voters draped in Mexican flags cheered each time a ballot was cast, and street vendors sold food and snacks to those in line.

Claudia Zavala, another member of the Temporary Voting Commission, acknowledged the issues and emphasized the need for future improvements.

With reports from Milenio, La Jornada, N+ and CNN en Español

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Brugada, who also represented the Labor Party and the Green Party, attracted over 50% of the vote, more than 10 points clear of PAN-PRI-PRD candidate Santiago Taboada, who had the support of just under 40% of voters.

Salomón Chertorivski of the Citizens Movement party was in a distant third place with about 7% of the vote.

Clara Brugada, a former mayor of the Mexico City borough of Itzapalapa, took to social media to acknowledge her victory.

“Based on the results issued by the electoral authority, the trend is clear: the majority of the people of this city want the transformation to continue,” she said in a post to X in the early hours of Monday.

The “transformation” she was referring to is the so-called “fourth transformation” President Andrés Manuel López Obrador asserts his government is undertaking in Mexico. Claudia Sheinbaum, who won Sunday’s presidential election in a landslide, has pledged to build on that transformation.

With her victory, Brugada will assume one of Mexico’s most powerful political positions — and is already a key ally of the new president.

Previous Mexico City mayors include Sheinbaum, who stepped down a year ago to focus on the presidential election, and López Obrador, who was in office in the capital between 2000 and 2005 before launching the first of his three presidential bids.

Felicidades querida @ClaudiaShein por escribir una página más de la historia y convertirte en la primera Presidenta de México. Estoy segura que continuarás el legado de nuestro gran presidente Andrés Manuel López Obrador.

¡Contigo, llegamos todas!#ClaudiaPresidenta… pic.twitter.com/50vOHEmCUd

— Clara Brugada Molina (@ClaraBrugadaM) June 3, 2024

Sheinbaum won the 2018 Mexico City mayoral election for Morena, ending the long-running rule of the Democractic Revolution Party (PRD) in the capital. López Obrador, former foreign affairs minister Marcelo Ebrard and Senator Miguel Ángel Mancera all represented the PRD when they were mayors of Mexico City earlier this century.

Brugada, who was selected as Morena’s candidate in the capital despite finishing second in the party’s internal selection contest, is perhaps best known for her “utopía” community center projects in Iztapalapa, which provide free athletic, recreation and education opportunities in the disadvantaged borough.

During her campaign, she pledged to establish 100 additional utopías across the capital’s 15 other boroughs if she succeeded in becoming mayor.

One of the key challenges she will face after she is sworn in on Oct. 5 is guaranteeing ongoing water supply for the capital.

Brugada has pledged to create a water-focused ministry in Mexico City, expand the capital’s rainwater harvesting program and establish a new program for the “rehabilitation” of 11 water sources, among other measures.

She has also said she will allocate “billions of pesos” to water projects in the capital, where many residents don’t have running water in their homes and depend on deliveries from trucks known as pipas.

Security and transport will be other key issues for Brugada, 60, who has also served as a federal and Mexico City lawmaker.

Voters in Mexico City also elected deputies to the capital’s Congress on Sunday. Morena and its allies look set to maintain a majority in the 66-seat unicameral legislature.

Mexico News Daily 

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Sheinbaum — who campaigned heavily on her commitment to build on the so-called “fourth transformation” of Mexico initiated by the current president — attracted 58-60% of the vote, according to “quick count” results announced by the president of the National Electoral Institute (INE) Guadalupe Taddei late Sunday.

Her main rival, Xóchitl Gálvez of a three-party opposition bloc, was around 30 points behind with 26-28% of the vote.

Jorge Álvarez Máynez, candidate for the Citizens Movement party, attracted about 10% of the vote.

Sheinbaum celebrated her comprehensive victory with an appearance after 1 a.m. Monday in the Zócalo, Mexico City’s central square.

“I feel excited and grateful for the recognition [the Mexican people] have given to the fourth transformation of public life in Mexico,” she said.

Sheinbaum, a former mayor of Mexico City, noted that it was the first time a woman had been elected president of Mexico since the country became independent more than 200 years ago.

Supporters responded with chants of “presidenta, presidenta,” the female form of the Spanish word for president.

Sheinbaum subsequently acknowledged a number of female Mexican trailblazers who preceded her, including independence insurgent Josefa Ortiz de Domínguez.

She also recognized “all the anonymous Mexican women” who have “built the homeland.”

Sheinbaum, 61, will be sworn in as president on Oct. 1 for a six-year term that will end in 2030. She is also the country’s first Jewish head of state.

Tens of millions of Mexicans voted across Mexico and from abroad on Sunday in what were the country’s largest ever elections. As of Monday morning, voter participation nationally was estimated to be 60.1% according to the INE.

The result in the presidential contest was a strong endorsement of the presidency of López Obrador, who took office in 2018 after the scandal-plagued term of the Institutional Revolutionary Party’s Enrique Peña Nieto.

AMLO, as the president is best known, is a polarizing figure in Mexico, but has retained strong support throughout his six-year term. He created Morena around a decade ago and it has since become Mexico’s dominant political force, governing the majority of the country’s 32 states.

Sheinbaum, a close ally and political protege of the president, has pledged to continue and strengthen López Obrador’s policies and programs, including the provision of welfare and social programs that have helped lift millions of Mexicans out of poverty.

Gálvez, an Indigenous Otomí woman and former senator, quickly became one of Mexico’s best-known politicians after announcing her presidential run and winning the nomination of the National Action Party (PAN), the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) and the Democratic Revolution Party.

While she won the support of millions of Mexicans, many others were clearly not prepared to vote for parties — namely the PRI and the PAN — that have previously held power and are associated with ills such as corruption and high levels of violence.

Mexicans on Sunday also voted to renew both houses of federal Congress and to elect thousands of state and municipal representatives including a new Mexico City mayor and the governors of nine states.

Morena and its allies — the Labor Party (PT) and the Green Party (PVEM) — were on track to win majorities in both houses of federal Congress and also came out on top in many other key contests, including in the Mexico City mayoral election, according to preliminary results.

Mexico News Daily 

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Still, there is another earlier election that will have far-reaching consequences for all Americans as well. On Sunday, June 2, 2024, Mexico will go to the polls to elect a new president. According to the polls, former Mexico City mayor Claudia Sheinbaum is leading her closest rival, Xóchitl Gálvez, by double digits.

Sheinbaum is known as a leftist nationalist who is committed to continuing the policy platform of current president Andres Manuel López Obrador (AMLO). Gálvez has promised to reject those nationalistic attitudes and policies and adopt a more business-friendly and collaborative relationship with the United States.

Here are seven numerical reasons why the U.S. Congress should pay attention to the Mexican election:

249,735: In December of 2023, almost a quarter of a million migrants were either apprehended or expelled at the United States’ Southwest border. According to the Pew Research Center, that “was the highest monthly total on record, easily eclipsing the previous peak of about 224,000 encounters in May 2022.” The outgoing president, López Obrador, initially worked closely with the U.S. government on this shared goal of reducing illegal immigration, but in recent years, he has scaled back cooperation. The next Mexican president will have to decide whether to renew and re-energize bilateral U.S. cooperation, especially within the realm of controlling the flow of migrants coming through Mexico en route to the southern U.S. border.

280,000 is the number of foreign nationals deported from Mexico in March 2024. Due to pressure from the U.S. government, President López Obrador has once again begun helping stem the flow of migrants across its territory after drastically reducing those efforts in 2023. Will the next president allocate the funding needed to stop migrants within Mexican territory?

107,543 drug overdoses occurred in the United States in 2023, according to the CDC. Mexico is a critically important partner in fighting the drug trade, but in recent years, the Mexican government has taken a lighter hand when it comes to tackling drug-trafficking organizations (DTOs). President López Obrador has adopted a “hugs, not bullets” strategy in dealing with organized crime and has repeatedly denied Mexican involvement in manufacturing fentanyl, the most lethal drug currently crossing the border. If the next president continues this policy of inaction, the synthetic drug problem in the United States will only worsen, with catastrophic consequences for public health.

US $63.3 billion is the amount of remittances sent to Mexico in 2023, almost all of which came from the United States. This number has grown from $36 billion before the pandemic. In large part, this flow of dollars to the Mexican economy has helped sustain domestic demand and has compensated for a lack of growth. If the next president can stimulate the Mexican economy, these remittances will become much less important.

US $44.2 billion is the value of refined petroleum products exported by the United States to Mexico in 2022. Mexico has become the United States’ largest export market for gasoline and other refined products, and this sum has grown four-fold in the past decade. AMLO has overseen a rapid deterioration in Mexico’s oil sector but has committed himself to a very ambitious and expensive goal of producing more refined products at home. If successful, this “energy sovereignty” policy will directly impact U.S. exports. Of the two leading candidates, Sheinbaum is committed to continuing AMLO’s approach. Galvez supports a free-market model of modernization and liberalization of the sector.

5.7 billion is the volume in cubic feet of natural gas exported to Mexico from the United States every day. Mexico’s industrialization and growing need for power generation will see this number grow even further in the years ahead if the next president pursues the right economic policies. However, a number of economic nationalist voices in the Mexican government have warned of potential over-dependence on U.S.-provided gas, which they believe could pose a threat to Mexico’s sovereignty — a fear that could affect the continued strength and viability of the energy trade.

1: Mexico is the largest trading partner for the United States. In 2023, for the first time, Mexico traded more goods with the United States than any other country, surpassing China and Canada — who, for years, had held the top spot. Total trade between the two countries amounted to $799 billion in 2023. That is $2.2 billion a day, over $91 million an hour, and over $1.5 million a minute. The deepening of ties between the United States and Mexican economies has reached the point where they are an essential element in maintaining U.S. competitiveness. Perhaps this reason, above all the others, is the most compelling reason to pay attention to Mexico’s election.

The choice facing the Mexican people in June is one of continuity or change. Continuity means that cooperation between the United States and Mexico on issues of security, migration, and narco-trafficking will remain difficult and limited. This election is critical for the well-being of citizens and the economies on both sides of the border. Good governance in Mexico, paired with solid cooperation between the new Mexican government and the United States, will be essential in promoting the welfare of both nations.

This article was originally published by The Mexico Institute at the Wilson Center.

Duncan Wood, PhD, Vice President for Strategy & New Initiatives and Senior Advisor to the Mexico Institute, focuses his research and publications on supply chain policy, critical minerals, Mexican politics and US-Mexican ties.  He regularly gives testimony to Congress and other national legislatures, and has published 12 books and is a widely quoted source in national and international media.

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Claudia Sheinbaum, the ruling Morena party candidate and the clear frontrunner, drew more than half a million people to Mexico City’s main square, the Zócalo, for her cierre de campaña, or campaign closure, according to the Mexico City government.

Her main rival, Xóchitl Gálvez of the three-party Strength and Heart for Mexico opposition bloc, made her final campaign address in her home town of Tepatepec, Hidalgo, but before that she spoke in front of more than 20,000 people at a packed Arena Monterrey in the capital of the northern border state of Nuevo León.

The third candidate, Jorge Álvarez Máynez of the Citizens Movement party, closed his campaign with a music festival-style event at a Mexico City concert venue.

The three candidates criss-crossed Mexico during the almost three-month-long official campaign period, holding countless events in every state of the country and facing off against each other in three debates replete with accusations and personal attacks.

Campaigning is prohibited on the final three days before Mexicans cast votes to elect a new president — most likely a woman for the first time ever — and thousands of other federal, state and municipal representatives.

Sheinbaum pledges to continue and strengthen the ‘transformation’ of Mexico  

In a 40-minute speech from a stage set up in front of Mexico’s National Palace, Sheinbaum declared that López Obrador — her political mentor and close ally — has “laid the foundations and the first story” of the so-called “fourth transformation” of Mexico, but asserted that a “consolidation” of “this true change” is still required.

“That’s why I’ve made the call to build — together — the second story of the fourth transformation of public life in Mexico,” she said.

Sheinbaum, mayor of the capital for five years before officially becoming the leader of the “fourth transformation” political project last September, also pledged to “protect the legacy” of López Obrador, whose six-year term has been defined by the implementation of social programs aimed at benefiting Mexico’s most disadvantaged people, the construction of various large-scale infrastructure projects, the challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic, record high levels of violence, and, of course, many other things.

“The transformation will continue moving forward and, for the first time in the 200 years of the republic, women will reach the highest honor that our people can give us: the presidency of Mexico. I use the plural because I’m not arriving [to the presidency] on my own, all women are arriving,” she said.

Joined on stage by dozens of Morena devotees, including most of the party’s gubernatorial candidates and her erstwhile rivals for the presidential nomination, Sheinbaum enumerated 20 commitments of a government she leads, many of which contained several points.

She pledged that her government would be “honest” and “austere,” that it will never be subjugated by any “economic or foreign power,” that it will guarantee people’s “freedoms,” that it will deliver “all” the current social programs and that it will ensure that increases to the minimum wage always outpace inflation.

Among her other commitments, the Morena party candidate said her administration would “strengthen” the “strategic” infrastructure projects carried out by the current government, such as the Maya Train railroad and the Olmeca Refinery, “promote energy sovereignty” and “deepen the strategy of peace and security.”

Gálvez promises to combat crime and to be Mexico’s ‘bravest president’

“There will be no greater priority in my government than your security and the security of your families, your daughters and your sons,” declared Xóchitl Gálvez during her campaign event in Monterrey.

Throughout her campaign, the PAN-PRI-PRD candidate has stressed that a government she leads will implement a tough-on-crime security strategy, and asserted that López Obrador’s so-called “hugs, not bullets” approach to combating violent crime has been a failure.

“You will have the bravest president, who does confront crime,” Gálvez told supporters at Arena Monterrey, a sports and concert venue in the Nuevo León capital.

Her decision to hold her final major campaign event in Monterrey appeared to be aimed at winning back votes from Citizens Movement (MC), which holds the city’s mayorship and the governorship of Nuevo León.

Gálvez repeatedly criticized MC during her address on Wednesday, and some of the proposals she outlined were squarely aimed at voters in Nuevo León, such as a plan to close the Pemex refinery in the municipality of Cadereyta Jiménez to ensure residents of the northern state have clean air.

“The [MC] governments prefer to get ‘likes’ than deliver results,” she said, referring in particular to the state government led by the social media-savvy Governor Samuel García.

The former senator is trailing Sheinbaum by 20 points or more in several major polls, but she asserted that “they’re scared to death in the National Palace” — the seat of executive power and López Obrador’s residence — because she’s going to win.

“They’re shaking in their boots because they know there are more of us good people and we’re fed up,” said Gálvez, who was joined on stage by Monterrey mayoral candidate Adrián de la Garza.

“We’ve grown tired of their lies, of so much death, of so much injustice,” she added.

“Be assured: God is with us, have faith. If God is with me, who is against me? Long live Mexico!” Gálvez concluded before taking a flight to Hidalgo to attend a much smaller cierre de campaña in her birthplace.

“In front of us we have a false idol with feet of clay, who thinks he’s invincible,” she said at that event, referring to López Obrador.

“But like all false idols, he’s condemned to fall,” Gálvez said.

Máynez: ‘It’s not that we’re not interested in politics, but that we’re not interested in their politics’ 

Jorge Álvarez Máynez — commonly known by his second surname only — held an exuberant event at the BlackBerry auditorium in Mexico City — with beer, live music and marijuana smoke perfuming the air.

The 38-year-old candidate courted the youth vote during the campaign, and there is evidence his strategy was somewhat successful as he finished well above Gálvez, albeit well below Sheinbaum, in a large mock election held across university campuses in Mexico.

On Wednesday — exactly one week after nine people were killed in an accident at an MC event he attended in Nuevo León — Máynez asserted that he and his supporters have showed Mexico’s old political parties and officials that “it’s not that we’re not interested in politics, but that we’re not interested in their politics.”

The MC candidate, a former federal deputy who is in a distant third place in the polls, told some 3,000 attendees of the “Máynez Capital Fest” that “the country will change” under his leadership.

“Never again are we going to have a young person in jail for smoking marijuana or a woman in jail for making a decision about her own body,” Máynez said during a relatively brief speech.

Accompanied by MC’s Mexico City mayoral candidate Salomón Chertorivski, Máynez also pledged to fight for people’s right to adequate housing.

Among the candidate’s other commitments are to increase the minimum salary to 10,000 pesos (US $590) per month, shorten the standard working week to 40 hours and provide students with free access to “concerts, books, artistic shows, theater and dance” performances.

By Mexico News Daily chief staff writer Peter Davies (peter.davies@mexiconewsdaily.com)

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Alfredo Cabrera Barrientos, PRI-PAN-PRD candidate for mayor in the municipality of Coyuca de Benítez, was shot at point-blank range at his final campaign event.

The aggressor was shot dead by the National Guard, which had been deployed to protect the candidate.

Video footage showed that Cabrera, 40, was shot in the head as he was about to take the stage to make the final speech of his campaign.

The event was held in the community of Las Lomas in Coyuca de Benítez, a coastal municipality that borders Acapulco to the west.

The Guerrero Attorney General’s Office (FGE) said in a statement that it had opened an investigation “against the person or people” responsible for the murder of the candidate.

It noted that the “presumed aggressor” was killed. The FGE didn’t mention a possible motive for the attack, but organized crime groups are known to target politicians and candidates they see as unwilling to accommodate, or at least tolerate, their activities.

Cabrera was previously targeted in a 2023 armed attack, according to Alejandro Bravo Abarca, leader of the Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI, in Guerrero.

Earlier this month, a PRI-PAN-PRD candidate for councilor in Coyuca de Benítez, Aníbal Zúñiga Cortés, and her husband, Rubí Bravo Solís, were found dead. Their bodies had been dismembered.

A municipal security secretary and 12 police officers were killed in an ambush in Coyuca de Benítez last October.

Cabrera, who in video footage is seen smiling and greeting his supporters just before he was killed, became the 35th candidate or political aspirant to be murdered during the 2023-24 electoral period, according to a count by the Mexico City-based consultancy firm Integralia.

Based on the number of candidates and aspirants killed, this electoral cycle, which began last September, is the most violent in Mexican history.

Most acts of electoral violence target candidates at the municipal level, who are usually more accessible to the public and often don’t have security details.

With reports from Reforma 

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