At present, polls show a large advantage to Claudia Sheinbaum, the presidential candidate supported by incumbent President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO), over her principal rival, Xóchitl Gálvez, who heads the opposition coalition ticket in Mexico’s presidential elections.

Beyond the presidential race, the outcomes in congressional and state elections will have big implications for the political clout of Mexico’s new president, the temperature of political debates, and the potential for approving major reforms of Mexico’s institutions, championed by AMLO to further his vision of Mexico’s transformation.

As elections approach, analysts in Mexico, the U.S., and internationally have expressed serious concern about the strength of Mexico’s democracy and the potential negative impact of AMLO’s proposed reforms.  

Given the closely interconnected relationship between Mexico and the United States, Americans must pay close attention to the outcomes of Mexico’s elections and what follows. The U.S. needs good working relations with its southern neighbor to deal with migration, crime and trade issues.

AMLO is hoping that his allies will win a super majority in both houses of Congress in June, allowing his party to pass proposed constitutional and legal reforms when lawmakers take office in September, and before he leaves office on Oct. 1.

The proposals would significantly alter the workings of Mexico’s electoral authorities, Congress, judiciary, and independent regulatory institutions, among others. The thrust of the reforms as proposed would centralize more power in the executive branch and the presidency. However, there is significant opposition to several proposals, including some that previously spurred mass protests. It is far from clear what may result.

What happens in Mexico is vital for the United States. Mexico is the U.S.’s largest trade and co-production partner, supporting some 5 million U.S. jobs. Most irregular migration crosses the US-Mexican border. Mexico remains the largest single source of U.S. immigrants and the source of family and cultural ties for over 35 million U.S. citizens. Also, the vast majority of the deadly fentanyl fueling U.S. overdose deaths comes in through Mexico.

The U.S.-Mexico relationship is simultaneously domestic and international for both countries. There is much to gain by cooperation, but the policies and politics of both countries often spur tensions and discord. It takes strong political commitment and skillful management to sustain good collaboration.

Of great concern is that the quality of Mexico’s democracy and governance has been declining, according to a variety of reports that compare countries around the world. This alarming trend gets too little attention.

Mexico faces daunting challenges in building prosperity and assuring rule of law. Regular news reports of criminal violence and thriving cartel power underscore this. Mexico has had more homicides during the current presidential administration than during any other presidential term in recent decades. Mexico is ranked as having the third worst criminality score globally, with extortion and other crimes worsening. A key study notes that despite improvements over the past four consecutive years, Mexico was less peaceful in 2023 than it was in 2015. Significant violence has marred the election season and many worry about organized crime shaping local elections.

There are respected international studies that put Mexico’s democracy in a broader perspective, which I summarize below.

The Bertelsmann Transformation Index, covering some 130 countries, shows Mexico dropping in its scores between 2016 to 2024. It argues that Mexico is “currently on a path of de-democratization.”  It cites attacks on independent institutions and a significant decline in Mexico’s rule of law and governance scores, among other concerns. 

The Economist Intelligence Unit’s Democracy Index 2023 ranks Mexico 90th out of the 167 countries it studied. This index categorizes Mexico as a “hybrid” democracy, which falls below a “full” or a “flawed” democracy. It finds Mexico’s ranking dropped 15% since 2018 and highlights the numbers of civilian deaths related to criminal violence.

International IDEA’s Global State of Democracy Indices, which cover 173 countries, finds that since 2018 Mexico has declined in 12 of the 22 indicators it uses for assessing countries. The biggest declines are in parliamentary effectiveness, freedom of speech, press freedom, judicial independence, predictable enforcement, and strength of civil society.

The Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Democracy Reports, which cover 202 countries, find a notable decline in Mexico’s ratings for all of its indexes, and shows particularly large drops in Mexico’s scores for “deliberative democracy,” “liberal democracy,”  and “electoral democracy”. V-Dem cites attacks on judiciary and electoral institutions, false government information, and increased polarization, among other issues.

Freedom House’s latest Freedom in the World report, rating some 195 countries, characterizes Mexico as “partly free.” It describes a decline in freedoms beginning after 2017 and flags concerns with organized crime and violence, corruption, lack of government transparency, poor rule of law, and civil liberties more broadly.

The World Justice Project’s Rule of Law Index finds that Mexico’s rule of law scores declined notably between 2018 and 2023 among the 100 plus countries analyzed, with particularly bad ratings on corruption, security, and criminal justice performance.

The World Bank prepares Worldwide Governance Indicators covering over 200 countries and territories.  The data from 2012, 2017 and 2022 show Mexico’s percentile rank declined in every category over the ten years, with the largest drops in government effectiveness, regulatory quality, rule of law, and control of corruption.

Finally, a 2023 Pew survey of 24 countries also flashed a warning on Mexico’s democracy.  The Pew survey showed that support for a leader making decisions without interference from a parliament or court had grown more in Mexico than in any other country studied (rising 23% to 50% of those polled).

The key point: it is essential to understand Mexico’s current election cycle in the context of the serious concerns raised by expert studies examining democracy and governance around the globe. These echo Mexico-focused analyses by media and organizations about the violation of human rights and civil liberties, attacks on individuals and NGOs that criticize the government, and violence against journalists and activists.

Mexicans of course have the most at stake, but next in line is the United States. The U.S. is invested heavily in ties with Mexico, including a major trade agreement and a massive presence of U.S. companies.

The U.S. will be better off with a strong, democratic Mexican partner to help fortify prosperity and security, just as Mexico needs a strong partner in the United States. Both countries need to understand the trends shaping electoral outcomes on the other side of the border, and engage each other to forge as constructive a partnership as possible. This will bring better outcomes for Americans and Mexicans.

Earl Anthony Wayne is currently teaching as a Distinguished Diplomat in Residence and Professorial Lecturer at American University’s School of International Service. He is a Public Policy Fellow at the Woodrow Wilson Center for International Scholars and Co-Chair of the Advisory Board of its Mexico Institute. Wayne is a former Assistant Secretary of State for Economic and Business Affairs, a former U.S. ambassador to Mexico and to Argentina and a former Deputy Ambassador in Afghanistan.

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AMLO wants to assure the continuation of Mexico’s “fourth transformation,” as AMLO calls the reform process that he initiated. A determined opposition seeks to reverse many of AMLO’s actions and policies and warns that AMLO seeks to weaken Mexico’s democracy.

The outcomes of Mexico’s elections are very important for the United States. No other country in the world has more impact on the daily lives of Americans than does the U.S.’s southern neighbor. Mexico is the United States’ largest trading partner and production partner. It is also the entry way for massive amounts of deadly, illegal drugs and huge flows of migrants.

Managing these key issues will be debated sharply during both the U.S. and Mexican election campaigns, as will be the strength of democratic practices in both countries. 

Mexico’s June 2024 elections will be large and complex; 98.6 million Mexicans are eligible to cast their ballots on June 2 for some 20,375 positions at the local, state, and national levels.

Rightly, most attention will be focused on the choice of a new president and the election of an entirely new national congress (500 deputies and 128 senators) in June. Although Mexico’s constitution does not allow incumbent president Lopez Obrador to run again, AMLO remains high in the polls, with approval ratings circling 60%, and he is throwing strong support to his chosen successor, Claudia Sheinbaum. Polls show Sheinbaum with a roughly 20% lead over the candidate of the opposition center-right coalition, Xóchitl Gálvez, at present.

Importantly, AMLO has indicated that if Sheinbaum’s coalition (named “Let’s Continue Making History”) wins a large enough majority in the new Congress, he will recommend constitutional reforms that would have the effect of weakening independent checks and balances in Mexico and centralizing more power in the hands of the president.

AMLO has been very critical of the Supreme Court, the National Electoral Institute and other autonomous institutions that were created over the years as Mexico was building its democracy. However, AMLO has not had the two thirds majority in both houses of Congress needed to approve the constitutional reforms he would like to see. His attempted reforms have sparked very large counter demonstrations and been rebuffed by Mexico’s courts, but he has persisted in his calls for constitutional change.  

During AMLO’s tenure the independent global indexes on democracy and related issues, including corruption and rule of law, have reported deterioration and backsliding in the quality of Mexico’s democracy. The 2023 World Justice Project’s Rule of Law Index, for example, tracks a decline in Mexico’s rule of law score during AMLO’s term and currently ranks Mexico at 116 out of the 142 countries measured. Thus, the outcome of the Mexico’s elections could be very important for the strength of Mexico’s democratic institutions.  

Not surprisingly, many in Mexico see the 2024 elections as a test for maintaining the strength of its democracy — echoing themes being heard in the U.S. election campaign.   

In Mexico, the formal national campaigns have not yet begun, but there has already been a good deal of campaign activity. Currently, AMLO’s candidate, Sheinbaum, and the coalition led by AMLO’s Morena party have a substantial lead over the three party opposition coalition known as “Strength and Heart for Mexico” and their candidate, Gálvez. Many observers believe the gap can be narrowed before the vote in June. The question is how much, for both the presidential vote and to impact the eventual congressional majorities. 

AMLO and his coalition have some clear weak spots on which the opposition will focus. One of the most evident is public unhappiness with the government’s handling of Mexico’s serious and persistent public security problems. In a recent poll by the respected Reforma newspaper, for example, 52% rated AMLO’s handling of organized crime as “bad”, and only 23% gave the president a good rating.

The widespread crime and poorly working justice system brings much violence to Mexican communities (with over 30,000 homicides annually in recent years and nearly 172,000 homicides since AMLO took office). This situation results in over 90% of impunity for most crimes.  

This situation also has severely negative effects for the U.S. It facilitates massive smuggling of deadly drugs, such as fentanyl. The latest data suggests that drug overdose rates in the U.S. hit a new high of some 112,000 in 2023. The seizures of lethal synthetic fentanyl at the U.S.-Mexico border almost doubled from FY 22 to FY 23, and the fentanyl seized between FY 21 and FY 23 rose 241%. U.S.-Mexico anti-crime cooperation has improved recently but remains far less effective than is needed. 

Thus, both Mexicans and Americans have a serious interest in the kind of crime and drug policies that Mexico’s new government will pursue. Several Republican politicians and candidates have already proposed using the U.S. military to go after drug cartels in Mexico, which could easily spark a crisis with a Mexican government seeking to defend its sovereignty.

Given the large flows of migrants crossing Mexico over the last year, the U.S. also has a very important interest in how good and willing a partner a new Mexican government will be in trying to tackle the very challenging cluster of issues involving the hundreds of thousands of migrants trying to enter the U.S. through Mexico. Both governments are struggling with how to manage migration, and polling shows that more Americans see this as a priority. 

Of course, if a Trump administration were to emerge from the U.S. elections, we would likely see a much different and less cooperative U.S. approach to dealing with Mexico on migration as well as drug smuggling.  

Crucially important is that across the same border, U.S.-Mexico trade averages $1.5 million a minute supporting millions of U.S. jobs, and trade has grown significantly since 2020. We cannot forget that despite all the problems Mexico has become the U.S.’s largest trading partner, with some 5 million U.S. jobs supported by that commerce.

U.S.-Mexico relations are so important to both countries that the governments will need to find a way to manage even very serious disagreements. The results of the elections, however, will make a big difference for good or for bad in managing the challenges.

Earl Anthony Wayne is currently teaching as a Distinguished Diplomat in Residence and Professorial Lecturer at American University’s School of International Service. He is a Public Policy Fellow at the Woodrow Wilson Center for International Scholars and Co-Chair of the Advisory Board of its Mexico Institute. Wayne is a former Assistant Secretary of State for Economic and Business Affairs, a former U.S. ambassador to Mexico and to Argentina and a former Deputy Ambassador in Afghanistan.

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